The 2-year Treasury yield, recently at 4.78% as of October 1 after closing near 4.88% the prior day and peaking above 4.9% in late September, reflects shifting Fed rate expectations amid resilient growth and sticky inflation. The September FOMC hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and median dots signaling one additional 2026 move drove yields higher, but recent comments from policymakers including New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson have reduced October hike odds to around 25%, favoring a December decision instead. Key upcoming catalysts include the September nonfarm payrolls report and October inflation releases, which will shape market-implied policy paths. Persistent fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate borrowing continue to support elevated term premiums, keeping near-term yields sensitive to data surprises.