The 2-year Treasury yield stood near 4.83% on October 2, 2026, after climbing from 4.39% a month earlier and 3.55% a year prior, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike that lifted the federal funds target to 3.75–4.00%. Persistent inflation, with August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, alongside resilient economic data, has reinforced expectations for tighter policy. Weak September payrolls of +29,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate introduce some uncertainty, but the next FOMC meeting on October 27–28 and the September CPI release on October 14 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied rate paths and Treasury pricing.