Recent hawkish Federal Reserve policy under Chair Kevin Warsh, including the September 2026 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% target range, has driven 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 5.05% as of late September, up sharply from 3.75% a year earlier. Persistent core CPI near 2.4% year-over-year, resilient growth fueled by AI capital spending, and a tight labor market with unemployment at 4.1% have lifted real rate expectations and term premia. Elevated fiscal deficits and Treasury supply add upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any signals on further tightening that could push the 5-year yield above recent highs near 5.10% before year-end.