**New federal operating guidelines under the 2026 Record of Decision for Colorado River management prioritize holding Lake Powell above 3,510 feet through reduced Glen Canyon Dam releases in the Low Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range.** Current elevation stands near 3,517.7 feet (about 21% capacity) following record lows in 2026, driven by the ongoing megadrought, below-average unregulated inflows (roughly 76% of average for water year 2026), and elevated evapotranspiration from warmer temperatures. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 24-month studies project the reservoir ending 2026 near 3,515 feet under most-probable conditions, with releases adjusted monthly to target the 3,510-foot threshold. While probable-minimum scenarios allow deeper drops, trader consensus reflects high confidence in operational interventions limiting the low to the 3,500–3,510-foot band or higher, consistent with historical management responses to similar conditions.