No 6.5-or-greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the September 21–27 window opened, keeping the market-implied probability of zero events at 77.5%. USGS data confirm that the strongest recent activity consists of M5.0–5.3 events, including tremors near Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Chile, and Timor-Leste, all well below the magnitude threshold. Global seismicity follows irregular patterns driven by tectonic plate interactions, with 6.5+ quakes averaging roughly one every few days but capable of clustering or quiet periods. With only two days left and no foreshocks or aftershock sequences indicating imminent large events, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of crossing the threshold before the period closes.