Ongoing extreme heat from July's record-warm month across the lower 48 states, driven by repeated heat domes, carries into mid-August 2026 with another strong dome centered over the South expected to push temperatures and humidity higher across multiple regions. This pattern, alongside a strengthening El Niño favoring above-average warmth in the West and elsewhere, supports the competitive market positioning where 0-20 and 21-60 record breaks lead closely. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many stations will surpass long-standing all-time highs versus seeing only incremental daily or monthly marks, with potential for separation depending on whether late-month heat intensifies further or gives way to cooler air masses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
0-20 25%
21-60 24%
151+ 11%
61-100 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
41%
21-60
34%
61-100
37%
101-150
32%
151+
11%
0-20 25%
21-60 24%
151+ 11%
61-100 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$94 Vol.
41%
21-60
$56 Vol.
34%
61-100
$67 Vol.
37%
101-150
$40 Vol.
32%
151+
$40 Vol.
11%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Ongoing extreme heat from July's record-warm month across the lower 48 states, driven by repeated heat domes, carries into mid-August 2026 with another strong dome centered over the South expected to push temperatures and humidity higher across multiple regions. This pattern, alongside a strengthening El Niño favoring above-average warmth in the West and elsewhere, supports the competitive market positioning where 0-20 and 21-60 record breaks lead closely. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many stations will surpass long-standing all-time highs versus seeing only incremental daily or monthly marks, with potential for separation depending on whether late-month heat intensifies further or gives way to cooler air masses.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$297End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Ongoing extreme heat from July's record-warm month across the lower 48 states, driven by repeated heat domes, carries into mid-August 2026 with another strong dome centered over the South expected to push temperatures and humidity higher across multiple regions. This pattern, alongside a strengthening El Niño favoring above-average warmth in the West and elsewhere, supports the competitive market positioning where 0-20 and 21-60 record breaks lead closely. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many stations will surpass long-standing all-time highs versus seeing only incremental daily or monthly marks, with potential for separation depending on whether late-month heat intensifies further or gives way to cooler air masses.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Volume
$297End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing extreme heat from July's record-warm month across the lower 48 states, driven by repeated heat domes, carries into mid-August 2026 with another strong dome centered over the South expected to push temperatures and humidity higher across multiple regions. This pattern, alongside a strengthening El Niño favoring above-average warmth in the West and elsewhere, supports the competitive market positioning where 0-20 and 21-60 record breaks lead closely. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many stations will surpass long-standing all-time highs versus seeing only incremental daily or monthly marks, with potential for separation depending on whether late-month heat intensifies further or gives way to cooler air masses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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