Persistent inflation, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures at 2.4%, alongside solid growth and a resilient labor market, underpins the closely matched trader consensus between two and three 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes for the full year. The September FOMC meeting delivered the first hike since 2023, lifting the target range to 3.75-4.00%, while updated projections signaled one additional move by year-end and held rates steady through 2027. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the October and December meetings, where incoming data on inflation trajectories, unemployment at 4.1%, and any shifts in monetary policy guidance could tip the balance between the leading outcomes.