Official forecasts and the season's subdued start through mid-August anchor trader sentiment, with NOAA's August update projecting 2–6 hurricanes (75% chance of below-normal activity) amid only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed to date. Persistent atmospheric conditions, including likely continued El Niño influences and reduced Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent active years, have suppressed genesis and intensification, as reflected in low accumulated cyclone energy. The closely matched 1–3 (39.5%) and 4–6 (42%) bins hinge on whether September–October development aligns with climatological peaks or remains limited by steering patterns and wind shear; upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and monitoring updates through early September will clarify the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
4-6 46%
1-3 44%
7+ 15%
0 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
7%
1-3
44%
4-6
37%
7+
15%
4-6 46%
1-3 44%
7+ 15%
0 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
$233 Vol.
7%
1-3
$310 Vol.
44%
4-6
$335 Vol.
37%
7+
$165 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Official forecasts and the season's subdued start through mid-August anchor trader sentiment, with NOAA's August update projecting 2–6 hurricanes (75% chance of below-normal activity) amid only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed to date. Persistent atmospheric conditions, including likely continued El Niño influences and reduced Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent active years, have suppressed genesis and intensification, as reflected in low accumulated cyclone energy. The closely matched 1–3 (39.5%) and 4–6 (42%) bins hinge on whether September–October development aligns with climatological peaks or remains limited by steering patterns and wind shear; upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and monitoring updates through early September will clarify the balance.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,042End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Official forecasts and the season's subdued start through mid-August anchor trader sentiment, with NOAA's August update projecting 2–6 hurricanes (75% chance of below-normal activity) amid only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed to date. Persistent atmospheric conditions, including likely continued El Niño influences and reduced Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent active years, have suppressed genesis and intensification, as reflected in low accumulated cyclone energy. The closely matched 1–3 (39.5%) and 4–6 (42%) bins hinge on whether September–October development aligns with climatological peaks or remains limited by steering patterns and wind shear; upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and monitoring updates through early September will clarify the balance.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$1,042End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts and the season's subdued start through mid-August anchor trader sentiment, with NOAA's August update projecting 2–6 hurricanes (75% chance of below-normal activity) amid only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed to date. Persistent atmospheric conditions, including likely continued El Niño influences and reduced Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent active years, have suppressed genesis and intensification, as reflected in low accumulated cyclone energy. The closely matched 1–3 (39.5%) and 4–6 (42%) bins hinge on whether September–October development aligns with climatological peaks or remains limited by steering patterns and wind shear; upcoming National Hurricane Center model runs and monitoring updates through early September will clarify the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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