**The 2026 Republican House primary cycle produced a contained number of incumbent defeats, aligning with trader consensus favoring the 4-6 outcome at 98.3%.** Most sitting members secured renomination, even amid notable challenges driven by ideological alignment tests, endorsement patterns, and intraparty competition. Confirmed losses remain limited to a handful of cases, including Thomas Massie in Kentucky and Dan Crenshaw in Texas, where primary voters rejected incumbents viewed as out of step with prevailing factional priorities. High overall turnover stems mainly from retirements and bids for other offices rather than primary defeats. With the bulk of nominating contests concluded, the narrow band reflects verified results rather than speculation. Additional losses in any remaining runoffs or special primaries could expand the total, though current tallies and historical patterns make outcomes outside 4-6 unlikely.