United Russia’s commanding position in the market stems from the just-concluded September 18–20 State Duma elections, where preliminary Central Election Commission tallies showed the party securing roughly 58% of the party-list vote and leading in 208 of 225 single-mandate districts. This performance, amid record turnout near 59%, positions the ruling party for its largest-ever faction while preserving a constitutional majority well above the 301-seat threshold. Traders’ strong preference for the 340–354 seat range over 355+ reflects expectations that final certified results—due after appeals and full processing by early October—will fall within that band, consistent with historical patterns of modest adjustments from preliminary figures. Late shifts could occur if recounts or threshold determinations for smaller parties alter seat redistribution, though such changes have rarely exceeded a handful of mandates in prior cycles.