Above-average Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity through mid-September has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 landfalls in China for 2026, with market-implied probabilities clustered on 7, 8, and greater than 8. Multiple systems, including Bavi, Noul, Dolphin, and Saudel, have already made landfall along eastern and southern coasts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven per season according to China Meteorological Administration records. El Niño development may enhance genesis and steer more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity, though remaining September–October activity hinges on steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from agencies such as the CMA and JMA. Official outlooks project an above-normal total, tempered by uncertainty in late-season formation and track variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
8 39%
Greater than 8 33%
7 29.2%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$58,457 Vol.
$58,457 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
29%
8
39%
Greater than 8
33%
8 39%
Greater than 8 33%
7 29.2%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$58,457 Vol.
$58,457 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$2,089 Vol.
<1%
5
$5,253 Vol.
<1%
6
$3,892 Vol.
<1%
7
$7,020 Vol.
29%
8
$13,350 Vol.
39%
Greater than 8
$26,855 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity through mid-September has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 landfalls in China for 2026, with market-implied probabilities clustered on 7, 8, and greater than 8. Multiple systems, including Bavi, Noul, Dolphin, and Saudel, have already made landfall along eastern and southern coasts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven per season according to China Meteorological Administration records. El Niño development may enhance genesis and steer more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity, though remaining September–October activity hinges on steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from agencies such as the CMA and JMA. Official outlooks project an above-normal total, tempered by uncertainty in late-season formation and track variability.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$58,457End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity through mid-September has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 landfalls in China for 2026, with market-implied probabilities clustered on 7, 8, and greater than 8. Multiple systems, including Bavi, Noul, Dolphin, and Saudel, have already made landfall along eastern and southern coasts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven per season according to China Meteorological Administration records. El Niño development may enhance genesis and steer more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity, though remaining September–October activity hinges on steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from agencies such as the CMA and JMA. Official outlooks project an above-normal total, tempered by uncertainty in late-season formation and track variability.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$58,457End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity through mid-September has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 landfalls in China for 2026, with market-implied probabilities clustered on 7, 8, and greater than 8. Multiple systems, including Bavi, Noul, Dolphin, and Saudel, have already made landfall along eastern and southern coasts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven per season according to China Meteorological Administration records. El Niño development may enhance genesis and steer more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity, though remaining September–October activity hinges on steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from agencies such as the CMA and JMA. Official outlooks project an above-normal total, tempered by uncertainty in late-season formation and track variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions