Cheng Chao-fang, the DPP nominee and Zhubei mayor recruited with direct involvement from President Lai Ching-te, holds the leading trader-implied probability at 54.5% in the November 28, 2026, Hsinchu County magistrate race, ahead of KMT nominee Hsu Hsin-ying at 44%. The contest narrowed to these two after candidate registration closed in early September, with negligible support for others. A September 21 Era poll showed Cheng at 35.1% to Hsu’s 28.7%, reversing earlier surveys where Hsu led following her March primary win over Chen Chien-hsien. Cheng draws strength from Zhubei and higher-educated voters, while Hsu maintains broader municipal support outside the city and consolidated KMT infrastructure. The recent collapse of local KMT-TPP coordination has limited opposition alignment, leaving performance records and turnout in key districts as the main variables that could widen or close the gap before election day.