India’s retail CPI inflation has climbed steadily to 4.82% in August 2026, with food inflation reaching 5.95% amid higher crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, supply disruptions from West Asia tensions, and uneven monsoon effects. The RBI’s June 2026 monetary policy report projects headline inflation averaging 5.1% for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflecting pass-through from energy and input costs while core measures remain contained around 4.3-4.7%. This trajectory underpins the dominant 90.5% market-implied odds for a 4.50%+ annual outcome. A sharper decline in global oil prices, favorable monsoon resolution, or faster supply-chain normalization could pull the full-year average below 4.5%, though such shifts appear limited in the near term given current data momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.4%
<0.75% 1.6%
3.00% to 3.74% 1.4%
$85,789 Vol.
$85,789 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
4%
4.50%+
91%
4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.4%
<0.75% 1.6%
3.00% to 3.74% 1.4%
$85,789 Vol.
$85,789 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$2,328 Vol.
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,545 Vol.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,605 Vol.
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$25,481 Vol.
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,410 Vol.
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
$31,997 Vol.
4%
4.50%+
$20,423 Vol.
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia’s retail CPI inflation has climbed steadily to 4.82% in August 2026, with food inflation reaching 5.95% amid higher crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, supply disruptions from West Asia tensions, and uneven monsoon effects. The RBI’s June 2026 monetary policy report projects headline inflation averaging 5.1% for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflecting pass-through from energy and input costs while core measures remain contained around 4.3-4.7%. This trajectory underpins the dominant 90.5% market-implied odds for a 4.50%+ annual outcome. A sharper decline in global oil prices, favorable monsoon resolution, or faster supply-chain normalization could pull the full-year average below 4.5%, though such shifts appear limited in the near term given current data momentum.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$85,789End Date
Jan 13, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia’s retail CPI inflation has climbed steadily to 4.82% in August 2026, with food inflation reaching 5.95% amid higher crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, supply disruptions from West Asia tensions, and uneven monsoon effects. The RBI’s June 2026 monetary policy report projects headline inflation averaging 5.1% for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflecting pass-through from energy and input costs while core measures remain contained around 4.3-4.7%. This trajectory underpins the dominant 90.5% market-implied odds for a 4.50%+ annual outcome. A sharper decline in global oil prices, favorable monsoon resolution, or faster supply-chain normalization could pull the full-year average below 4.5%, though such shifts appear limited in the near term given current data momentum.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$85,789End Date
Jan 13, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...India’s retail CPI inflation has climbed steadily to 4.82% in August 2026, with food inflation reaching 5.95% amid higher crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, supply disruptions from West Asia tensions, and uneven monsoon effects. The RBI’s June 2026 monetary policy report projects headline inflation averaging 5.1% for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflecting pass-through from energy and input costs while core measures remain contained around 4.3-4.7%. This trajectory underpins the dominant 90.5% market-implied odds for a 4.50%+ annual outcome. A sharper decline in global oil prices, favorable monsoon resolution, or faster supply-chain normalization could pull the full-year average below 4.5%, though such shifts appear limited in the near term given current data momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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