Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a rise to 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.9% in July and driven by higher energy and fuel costs, has anchored trader expectations for further upside in the September print. The Bank of England’s September Monetary Policy Report and MPC communications project inflation climbing toward 3.75% by year-end amid persistent services pressures and a still-tight labor market, reinforcing the 3.4-3.6% band as the dominant market-implied outcome at 57.5%. With the Bank Rate held at 3.75%, attention now turns to the mid-October ONS release and any revisions to growth or wage data that could shift the near-term path.