Recent opinion polls project the reunited Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al with Balad) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting consolidation efforts among Arab parties that concluded agreements in August. This positioning stems from sustained but variable Arab-sector turnout, competition with Ra'am, and broader shifts favoring centrist and opposition lists such as Yashar. Fragmentation risks, undecided voters near the 3.25% threshold, and last-minute list finalization have kept projected vote shares tightly clustered, with recent surveys showing outcomes spanning the 4.5-7.5% bands. Trader consensus prices these ranges highest as the most probable results based on current polling averages and historical Arab-list performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<4.5% 40%
6.5-7.5% 29%
5.5-6.5% 29%
4.5-5.5% 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
40%
4.5-5.5%
28%
5.5-6.5%
29%
6.5-7.5%
29%
7.5%+
24%
<4.5% 40%
6.5-7.5% 29%
5.5-6.5% 29%
4.5-5.5% 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$0 Vol.
40%
4.5-5.5%
$0 Vol.
28%
5.5-6.5%
$0 Vol.
29%
6.5-7.5%
$0 Vol.
29%
7.5%+
$19 Vol.
24%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent opinion polls project the reunited Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al with Balad) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting consolidation efforts among Arab parties that concluded agreements in August. This positioning stems from sustained but variable Arab-sector turnout, competition with Ra'am, and broader shifts favoring centrist and opposition lists such as Yashar. Fragmentation risks, undecided voters near the 3.25% threshold, and last-minute list finalization have kept projected vote shares tightly clustered, with recent surveys showing outcomes spanning the 4.5-7.5% bands. Trader consensus prices these ranges highest as the most probable results based on current polling averages and historical Arab-list performance.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent opinion polls project the reunited Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al with Balad) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting consolidation efforts among Arab parties that concluded agreements in August. This positioning stems from sustained but variable Arab-sector turnout, competition with Ra'am, and broader shifts favoring centrist and opposition lists such as Yashar. Fragmentation risks, undecided voters near the 3.25% threshold, and last-minute list finalization have kept projected vote shares tightly clustered, with recent surveys showing outcomes spanning the 4.5-7.5% bands. Trader consensus prices these ranges highest as the most probable results based on current polling averages and historical Arab-list performance.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$19End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls project the reunited Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al with Balad) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting consolidation efforts among Arab parties that concluded agreements in August. This positioning stems from sustained but variable Arab-sector turnout, competition with Ra'am, and broader shifts favoring centrist and opposition lists such as Yashar. Fragmentation risks, undecided voters near the 3.25% threshold, and last-minute list finalization have kept projected vote shares tightly clustered, with recent surveys showing outcomes spanning the 4.5-7.5% bands. Trader consensus prices these ranges highest as the most probable results based on current polling averages and historical Arab-list performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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