Israel has maintained a sustained military presence in southern Syria since late 2024, conducting regular airstrikes, artillery shelling, ground incursions, and detentions across Quneitra, Daraa, and Rif Dimashq provinces, often citing security threats from armed groups or potential Turkish deployments. A notable August 2026 airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase near the Turkish border, followed by additional September operations including patrols and raids, has reinforced trader focus on the likelihood of continued or escalated action through late 2026. Diplomatic contacts between Israeli and Syrian officials on security arrangements and Turkish influence have introduced some uncertainty, though violations of the 1974 disengagement line persist amid UN concerns over civilian impacts. These patterns of recurring operations, rather than isolated events, shape assessments of near-term military activity.