Israeli and Lebanese officials signed a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that establishes two small pilot zones for phased Israeli redeployment, one south of the Litani River and a limited area north of it, with control transferred to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The deal links any further withdrawals to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment rather than fixed timelines, while Israel retains its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah rejected the agreement, and subsequent Israeli strikes have continued in the region. Trader sentiment reflects these conditions-based terms, the Lebanese army’s limited capacity to enforce them, and the absence of broader progress since the June accord.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,368,140 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
1%
October 31
6%
December 31
13%
March 31
26%
$1,368,140 Vol.
September 30
$9,960 Vol.
1%
October 31
$3,849 Vol.
6%
December 31
$512,978 Vol.
13%
March 31
$136 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli and Lebanese officials signed a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that establishes two small pilot zones for phased Israeli redeployment, one south of the Litani River and a limited area north of it, with control transferred to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The deal links any further withdrawals to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment rather than fixed timelines, while Israel retains its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah rejected the agreement, and subsequent Israeli strikes have continued in the region. Trader sentiment reflects these conditions-based terms, the Lebanese army’s limited capacity to enforce them, and the absence of broader progress since the June accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,368,140End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli and Lebanese officials signed a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that establishes two small pilot zones for phased Israeli redeployment, one south of the Litani River and a limited area north of it, with control transferred to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The deal links any further withdrawals to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment rather than fixed timelines, while Israel retains its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah rejected the agreement, and subsequent Israeli strikes have continued in the region. Trader sentiment reflects these conditions-based terms, the Lebanese army’s limited capacity to enforce them, and the absence of broader progress since the June accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,368,140End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli and Lebanese officials signed a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that establishes two small pilot zones for phased Israeli redeployment, one south of the Litani River and a limited area north of it, with control transferred to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The deal links any further withdrawals to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment rather than fixed timelines, while Israel retains its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah rejected the agreement, and subsequent Israeli strikes have continued in the region. Trader sentiment reflects these conditions-based terms, the Lebanese army’s limited capacity to enforce them, and the absence of broader progress since the June accord.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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