Lai Jui-lung, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee and three-term legislator, holds a commanding 74% implied probability in the Kaohsiung mayoral race due to strong party consolidation after winning the January primary and the sustained high approval ratings of incumbent Mayor Chen Chi-mai. Ko Chih-en, the Kuomintang legislator making her second bid, trails at 26.6% as traders weigh her efforts to court Hakka voters, propose cultural and tourism initiatives, and leverage national-party support against Kaohsiung’s long-standing DPP structural advantages. Recent September polling and simulations show Lai leading modestly amid 18-30% undecided voters, while campaign events including cross-strait visits and district-specific policy pitches have not yet produced decisive shifts. The November 28 election timing leaves room for late movement in turnout or messaging among swing and neutral blocs.