Łukasz Gibała holds an overwhelming lead in the Kraków mayoral election market due to consistent polling dominance ahead of the September 27 first round. Recent surveys place him between 34% and 46% support as an independent backed by his local Kraków for Residents committee, well ahead of Monika Piątkowska (KO-PSL) in second place. This positions him as the clear favorite to advance to and win any October 11 runoff. The snap election follows the May recall of prior mayor Aleksander Miszalski, with Gibała drawing on his prior strong showings, including a near-miss in 2024. Fragmented fields among PiS, Lewica, and other candidates further consolidate his advantage in trader assessments of the outcome.