SpaceX leads trader-implied odds at 61.5% for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its June 2026 pricing at $135 per share targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise—the largest on record—following its February merger with xAI that lifted the combined entity above $1.25 trillion. This trajectory reflects Starlink revenue maturation, Starship ambitions, and investor appetite for space-AI exposure at multiples exceeding 90 times trailing sales. Anthropic’s 39.9% probability stems from its June confidential S-1 filing for an October Nasdaq debut, backed by a May $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and expectations of a $60 billion-plus offering near $1 trillion market cap. xAI’s 25.5% share captures residual merger synergies now embedded in SpaceX, while lower-probability names such as OpenAI face timing and scale uncertainty relative to these leaders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX 62%
Anthropic 39.9%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,419,466 Vol.
$5,419,466 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
62%
Anthropic
40%
OpenAI
<1%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 62%
Anthropic 39.9%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,419,466 Vol.
$5,419,466 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$743,170 Vol.
62%
Anthropic
$781,824 Vol.
40%
OpenAI
$476,832 Vol.
<1%
Discord
$176,728 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$208,392 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$128,177 Vol.
<1%
Kraken
$655,953 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$581,615 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$316,150 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$633,436 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$104,136 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$613,055 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX leads trader-implied odds at 61.5% for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its June 2026 pricing at $135 per share targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise—the largest on record—following its February merger with xAI that lifted the combined entity above $1.25 trillion. This trajectory reflects Starlink revenue maturation, Starship ambitions, and investor appetite for space-AI exposure at multiples exceeding 90 times trailing sales. Anthropic’s 39.9% probability stems from its June confidential S-1 filing for an October Nasdaq debut, backed by a May $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and expectations of a $60 billion-plus offering near $1 trillion market cap. xAI’s 25.5% share captures residual merger synergies now embedded in SpaceX, while lower-probability names such as OpenAI face timing and scale uncertainty relative to these leaders.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$5,419,466End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX leads trader-implied odds at 61.5% for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its June 2026 pricing at $135 per share targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise—the largest on record—following its February merger with xAI that lifted the combined entity above $1.25 trillion. This trajectory reflects Starlink revenue maturation, Starship ambitions, and investor appetite for space-AI exposure at multiples exceeding 90 times trailing sales. Anthropic’s 39.9% probability stems from its June confidential S-1 filing for an October Nasdaq debut, backed by a May $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and expectations of a $60 billion-plus offering near $1 trillion market cap. xAI’s 25.5% share captures residual merger synergies now embedded in SpaceX, while lower-probability names such as OpenAI face timing and scale uncertainty relative to these leaders.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$5,419,466End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX leads trader-implied odds at 61.5% for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its June 2026 pricing at $135 per share targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise—the largest on record—following its February merger with xAI that lifted the combined entity above $1.25 trillion. This trajectory reflects Starlink revenue maturation, Starship ambitions, and investor appetite for space-AI exposure at multiples exceeding 90 times trailing sales. Anthropic’s 39.9% probability stems from its June confidential S-1 filing for an October Nasdaq debut, backed by a May $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and expectations of a $60 billion-plus offering near $1 trillion market cap. xAI’s 25.5% share captures residual merger synergies now embedded in SpaceX, while lower-probability names such as OpenAI face timing and scale uncertainty relative to these leaders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions