Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 70.3% because his Renovación Popular list tops recent polling, including a late-September simulacro showing 28.4% support versus 18.2% for Carlos Ricardo Bruce and lower shares for Francis Allison, Samuel Daza, and Daniel Urresti. Legal rulings by the JNE have upheld his candidacy as first regidor despite term-limit challenges, positioning him to assume the mayoralty if his slate prevails on October 4. Traders price the fragmented field and his residual name recognition from prior service as key factors sustaining the gap, while Bruce and others trail amid divided opposition and weaker polling momentum. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks remain the primary near-term variables.