Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral race as first regidor on the Renovación Popular slate, with recent polling averages and a late-September simulacro placing him well ahead of Carlos Bruce and other contenders ahead of the October 4 vote. Legal rulings by the JNE cleared his candidacy despite earlier challenges tied to his prior senator proclamation and party list adjustments following Luis Rubio's withdrawal. Multiple surveys from mid-to-late September show López Aliaga consolidating support in the mid-to-high 20s percent range while Bruce trails in the teens, with the rest of the fragmented field remaining in single digits. These trends, alongside ongoing candidate debates and minimal late shifts, underpin the current trader pricing that positions López Aliaga as the clear favorite and Bruce as the primary alternative.