**Current conditions place the Great Salt Lake south arm near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (NGVD29) as of late September 2026, with a declining trend of roughly 0.1 ft over the past week and 0.4 ft over the past month.** As a terminal lake, its elevation is governed by the balance between inflows (primarily from the Bear, Weber, and Jordan rivers, plus direct precipitation) and losses (evaporation, modulated by temperature, humidity, wind, salinity, and surface area). The annual minimum typically occurs in late fall or early winter after peak summer evaporation and before significant snowmelt-driven inflows. The closely matched leading outcomes (4,189.5–4,189.6 ft at 41.5% vs. 4,189.7 ft or higher at 40.5%) reflect uncertainty in the remaining 2026 water balance. Recent conservation measures have delivered tens of thousands of acre-feet, helping avert a new record low so far despite the very dry 2025–2026 snowpack and ongoing drought. However, continued warm, dry conditions could sustain elevated evaporation rates, while any additional late-season precipitation or reduced upstream diversions could limit further decline. The lower-probability bins (below 4,189.3 ft or 4,189.3–4,189.4 ft) would require accelerated net losses over the next 2–3 months. Key near-term variables include fall/winter precipitation and temperature forecasts for the basin, reservoir releases, and any incremental conservation deliveries. USGS monitoring and state updates will provide the data that ultimately resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
4,189.7 ft or more 59%
Below 4,189.3 ft 24%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft 21%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft 18%
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
Below 4,189.3 ft
24%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft
20%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft
21%
4,189.7 ft or more
59%
4,189.7 ft or more 59%
Below 4,189.3 ft 24%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft 21%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft 18%
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
Below 4,189.3 ft
$0 Vol.
24%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft
$62 Vol.
20%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft
$60 Vol.
21%
4,189.7 ft or more
$128 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb**Current conditions place the Great Salt Lake south arm near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (NGVD29) as of late September 2026, with a declining trend of roughly 0.1 ft over the past week and 0.4 ft over the past month.** As a terminal lake, its elevation is governed by the balance between inflows (primarily from the Bear, Weber, and Jordan rivers, plus direct precipitation) and losses (evaporation, modulated by temperature, humidity, wind, salinity, and surface area). The annual minimum typically occurs in late fall or early winter after peak summer evaporation and before significant snowmelt-driven inflows.
The closely matched leading outcomes (4,189.5–4,189.6 ft at 41.5% vs. 4,189.7 ft or higher at 40.5%) reflect uncertainty in the remaining 2026 water balance. Recent conservation measures have delivered tens of thousands of acre-feet, helping avert a new record low so far despite the very dry 2025–2026 snowpack and ongoing drought. However, continued warm, dry conditions could sustain elevated evaporation rates, while any additional late-season precipitation or reduced upstream diversions could limit further decline. The lower-probability bins (below 4,189.3 ft or 4,189.3–4,189.4 ft) would require accelerated net losses over the next 2–3 months.
Key near-term variables include fall/winter precipitation and temperature forecasts for the basin, reservoir releases, and any incremental conservation deliveries. USGS monitoring and state updates will provide the data that ultimately resolves the market.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$250End Date
Jan 2, 2027Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb**Current conditions place the Great Salt Lake south arm near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (NGVD29) as of late September 2026, with a declining trend of roughly 0.1 ft over the past week and 0.4 ft over the past month.** As a terminal lake, its elevation is governed by the balance between inflows (primarily from the Bear, Weber, and Jordan rivers, plus direct precipitation) and losses (evaporation, modulated by temperature, humidity, wind, salinity, and surface area). The annual minimum typically occurs in late fall or early winter after peak summer evaporation and before significant snowmelt-driven inflows.
The closely matched leading outcomes (4,189.5–4,189.6 ft at 41.5% vs. 4,189.7 ft or higher at 40.5%) reflect uncertainty in the remaining 2026 water balance. Recent conservation measures have delivered tens of thousands of acre-feet, helping avert a new record low so far despite the very dry 2025–2026 snowpack and ongoing drought. However, continued warm, dry conditions could sustain elevated evaporation rates, while any additional late-season precipitation or reduced upstream diversions could limit further decline. The lower-probability bins (below 4,189.3 ft or 4,189.3–4,189.4 ft) would require accelerated net losses over the next 2–3 months.
Key near-term variables include fall/winter precipitation and temperature forecasts for the basin, reservoir releases, and any incremental conservation deliveries. USGS monitoring and state updates will provide the data that ultimately resolves the market.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
Volume
$250End Date
Jan 2, 2027Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ET**Current conditions place the Great Salt Lake south arm near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (NGVD29) as of late September 2026, with a declining trend of roughly 0.1 ft over the past week and 0.4 ft over the past month.** As a terminal lake, its elevation is governed by the balance between inflows (primarily from the Bear, Weber, and Jordan rivers, plus direct precipitation) and losses (evaporation, modulated by temperature, humidity, wind, salinity, and surface area). The annual minimum typically occurs in late fall or early winter after peak summer evaporation and before significant snowmelt-driven inflows. The closely matched leading outcomes (4,189.5–4,189.6 ft at 41.5% vs. 4,189.7 ft or higher at 40.5%) reflect uncertainty in the remaining 2026 water balance. Recent conservation measures have delivered tens of thousands of acre-feet, helping avert a new record low so far despite the very dry 2025–2026 snowpack and ongoing drought. However, continued warm, dry conditions could sustain elevated evaporation rates, while any additional late-season precipitation or reduced upstream diversions could limit further decline. The lower-probability bins (below 4,189.3 ft or 4,189.3–4,189.4 ft) would require accelerated net losses over the next 2–3 months. Key near-term variables include fall/winter precipitation and temperature forecasts for the basin, reservoir releases, and any incremental conservation deliveries. USGS monitoring and state updates will provide the data that ultimately resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions