Persistent drought conditions across the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins, with below-normal rainfall over the past 30-60 days, have driven earlier seasonal declines in stages at St. Louis, currently near 14 ft. Trader sentiment clusters around modest negative to low-positive minimums through November 30 because fall precipitation forecasts remain highly variable, with soil moisture deficits and reduced baseflow limiting recovery potential. Key differentiating factors include upstream reservoir release schedules from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, evapotranspiration rates tied to autumn temperatures, and any late-season frontal systems that could boost tributary inflows. Model consensus on total basin precipitation through late fall shows wide uncertainty ranges, keeping probabilities for extremes like below -3 ft or above 3 ft relatively balanced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?
Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?
-1.00 to 0.99 ft 21%
-3.00 to -1.01 ft 20%
3.00 ft or more 20%
1.00 to 2.99 ft 19%
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
Below -3.00 ft
14%
-3.00 to -1.01 ft
20%
-1.00 to 0.99 ft
21%
1.00 to 2.99 ft
19%
3.00 ft or more
20%
-1.00 to 0.99 ft 21%
-3.00 to -1.01 ft 20%
3.00 ft or more 20%
1.00 to 2.99 ft 19%
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
Below -3.00 ft
$21 Vol.
14%
-3.00 to -1.01 ft
$426 Vol.
20%
-1.00 to 0.99 ft
$417 Vol.
21%
1.00 to 2.99 ft
$78 Vol.
19%
3.00 ft or more
$81 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
Persistent drought conditions across the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins, with below-normal rainfall over the past 30-60 days, have driven earlier seasonal declines in stages at St. Louis, currently near 14 ft. Trader sentiment clusters around modest negative to low-positive minimums through November 30 because fall precipitation forecasts remain highly variable, with soil moisture deficits and reduced baseflow limiting recovery potential. Key differentiating factors include upstream reservoir release schedules from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, evapotranspiration rates tied to autumn temperatures, and any late-season frontal systems that could boost tributary inflows. Model consensus on total basin precipitation through late fall shows wide uncertainty ranges, keeping probabilities for extremes like below -3 ft or above 3 ft relatively balanced.
This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,023End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
Persistent drought conditions across the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins, with below-normal rainfall over the past 30-60 days, have driven earlier seasonal declines in stages at St. Louis, currently near 14 ft. Trader sentiment clusters around modest negative to low-positive minimums through November 30 because fall precipitation forecasts remain highly variable, with soil moisture deficits and reduced baseflow limiting recovery potential. Key differentiating factors include upstream reservoir release schedules from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, evapotranspiration rates tied to autumn temperatures, and any late-season frontal systems that could boost tributary inflows. Model consensus on total basin precipitation through late fall shows wide uncertainty ranges, keeping probabilities for extremes like below -3 ft or above 3 ft relatively balanced.
This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
Volume
$1,023End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETPersistent drought conditions across the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins, with below-normal rainfall over the past 30-60 days, have driven earlier seasonal declines in stages at St. Louis, currently near 14 ft. Trader sentiment clusters around modest negative to low-positive minimums through November 30 because fall precipitation forecasts remain highly variable, with soil moisture deficits and reduced baseflow limiting recovery potential. Key differentiating factors include upstream reservoir release schedules from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, evapotranspiration rates tied to autumn temperatures, and any late-season frontal systems that could boost tributary inflows. Model consensus on total basin precipitation through late fall shows wide uncertainty ranges, keeping probabilities for extremes like below -3 ft or above 3 ft relatively balanced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions