Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and regional forecasts indicates a minimum temperature near 18°C in Beijing on September 26, driven by a shift to northerly winds and widespread precipitation that enhances surface cooling through evaporation and reduced insolation. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly between 16–18°C because ensemble spreads show minor differences in the timing of the frontal passage and rainfall intensity, which can alter overnight radiative cooling by 1–2°C. Historical late-September baselines average around 15–17°C lows, but current moisture and cloud cover introduce forecast uncertainty typical of short-range numerical weather prediction. Updated runs from monitoring agencies will likely refine these thresholds before resolution.