**Approaching southerly flow associated with a cut-off low is the main driver keeping Cape Town’s September 26 minimum forecast near 14–15 °C, with trader consensus split between a mild 20 °C+ outcome (47.5 % implied) and a cooler 10 °C-or-below scenario (38.5 %).** South African Weather Service guidance and global models (GFS/ECMWF) show fresh to strong southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and reduced overnight radiative cooling under increased cloud cover. Historical September minima average around 10 °C, so current guidance sits above normal yet below recent mild spells; small shifts in front timing or wind strength can move the observed low by 2–3 °C. Latest model runs and official updates tonight will clarify whether the minimum settles near 14–15 °C or dips lower.