Forecast consensus from GFS and regional models points to a Moscow minimum near 7–8°C overnight into September 26, driven by southerly flow, increasing high pressure, and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiational cooling. Partly cloudy skies and light winds reduce the chance of sharp drops below 5°C, while localized fog or clearer patches could allow brief excursions toward 3–4°C in suburbs. These conditions exceed late-September climatological norms by 2–4°C, reflecting a mild air mass. Trader sentiment remains closely split because small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing—reflected in the next ECMWF and GFS runs—can move the exact low across the 7°C, 4–6°C, or sub-3°C thresholds. Final observational data from Moscow stations will resolve the market after sunset.