Recent model consensus from GFS and regional guidance points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds as the key driver for Moscow’s minimum temperature on September 26, producing trader focus on the closely matched 2 °C-or-below and 7 °C outcomes. Forecast lows cluster between 6–9 °C, with some runs allowing brief clear spells or localized fog that could dip readings lower while others keep more cloud cover and slightly milder conditions. Historical September norms near 9 °C provide context, yet current southerly flow and modest dew points limit extreme cold potential. Updated model runs and official Hydrometeorological Center briefings tonight will clarify cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing ahead of market resolution.