Forecast consensus from sources including WeatherBug, GFS-influenced models, and Chinese meteorological outlets points to a Shanghai minimum near 24–25 °C on September 26, driven by widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 85–90 %, and light winds associated with scattered thunderstorms and rain. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated compared with clearer scenarios. Recent observations on September 25 show persistent warm, moist air with temperatures holding in the mid-20s °C overnight, consistent with late-September subtropical patterns where average minima hover around 22–24 °C. Model agreement on the timing of precipitation and lack of a strong cold-air intrusion supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C (68 % implied probability) over cooler outcomes. Updated runs ahead of local sunrise will refine the exact low.