**Recent forecast consensus from models and the Central Weather Administration points to a minimum temperature in Taipei on September 26 in the 23–25°C range, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds around 24°C and 25°C.** Overnight conditions feature light variable winds, high humidity near 90–100% in the pre-dawn hours, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with no significant frontal systems or precipitation expected to alter radiative cooling. Historical September climatology for Taipei shows typical overnight lows near 24°C, and current runs align closely with that baseline without notable deviations from steering patterns or tropical moisture influx. Traders appear to weigh minor differences in model timing of the daily minimum and potential urban heat-island effects against the narrow spread of guidance, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 23°C or above 25°C subdued. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 12–24 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.