**Forecast models indicate an overnight low near 9–12°C for Warsaw on September 26, with trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 9°C (39%), 5°C or below (36.5%), and warmer thresholds above 15°C (33.5%).** Recent passage of a frontal system has left moist air and high cloud cover, but building high pressure (rising to ~1023–1025 hPa) and light southwesterly winds are expected to promote gradual clearing overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling once clouds thin, though residual humidity and variable high-level cloud may limit the drop. Historical September minima average near 10°C, and current ensemble guidance shows limited spread below 8°C absent stronger clear-sky conditions. Key resolution factors include the precise timing of any clearing and minimum temperatures recorded between 00:00–08:00 local time.