Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models project a nighttime low near 23°C in Wuhan on September 26 amid scattered showers, northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling. This baseline aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where transitioning monsoon patterns and occasional cold-air intrusions from the north can produce 1–3°C variability in minimum temperatures. Market-implied probabilities favor outcomes at or below 22°C because traders are weighting potential model spreads, localized cooling under persistent cloud cover, and the chance of stronger northerly flow accelerating the seasonal decline. Upcoming NMC updates and regional observations will refine these estimates ahead of resolution.