Recent polling for Maranhão's two Senate seats shows a fragmented field with Roseana Sarney (MDB) frequently leading total or first-preference votes, while second place remains highly contested among Weverton Rocha (PDT), André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim (Novo), and Eliziane Gama (PT). August and September surveys from Quaest, IP Sensus, Real Time, and Viva Voz indicate margins within sampling error for the second vacancy, reflecting high undecided rates, the dual-vote system that rewards vote-splitting combinations, and limited name recognition in spontaneous responses. Official candidacies were formalized in July and August, with limited major shifts since. Trader pricing for second-place outcomes aligns with this volatility ahead of the October 4 election, as further campaign events or turnout patterns could alter pairwise support.