Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4 Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling advantages and structural support. As former governor and a key ally of incumbent Governor Eduardo Riedel, Azambuja benefits from a unified center-right coalition that includes his own PL ticket with Capitão Contar, plus Nelsinho Trad stepping aside to serve as his alternate. Multiple 2026 surveys from institutes such as IPR/Correio do Estado and Ranking Brasil show Azambuja ahead at roughly 22-24 percent, ahead of Contar and trailing candidates including Vander Loubet (PT) and Soraya (PSB). The PL pairing has consolidated the bolsonarista and governista vote, limiting fragmentation and reinforcing Azambuja’s edge in the two-vote Senate system.