**Recent polling and candidate alignments position Capitão Contar (PL) as the frontrunner for second place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4, 2026 Senate election.** Multiple September surveys, including IPR/Correio do Estado and others, show Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) leading with roughly 22–24% while Contar trails him but holds a clear margin over the field at 15–20%. The PL ticket’s consolidation after internal surveys and national backing has concentrated center-right support, with Nelsinho Trad stepping aside as Azambuja’s alternate. Vander Loubet (PT) and Soraya Thronicke (PSB) remain in the next tier around 8–11%, reflecting divided opposition votes. These patterns explain trader consensus on Contar for second while leaving room for late shifts before the first-round vote.