**Recent polling shows the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race remains closely contested between incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) and challenger Wellington Fagundes (PL), with Doutora Natasha (PSD) a distant third.** Pivetta has posted gains in September surveys, reaching 34–42% in first-round estimates from MT Dados, Paraná Pesquisas, and others, buoyed by reported approval above 70% and name recognition as the sitting governor who assumed office after the prior executive’s resignation. Fagundes, who led earlier in the year, has slipped to the mid-to-high 20s in most recent readings while retaining strength in rural and interior areas through PL organization. Natasha hovers in the low-to-mid teens. High undecided and blank/null shares, plus the October 4 first-round threshold for an outright majority, sustain uncertainty. A potential October 25 runoff between the top two keeps trader pricing tight, with any late shifts in turnout among agribusiness or urban blocs or final campaign momentum likely to widen the gap.