Recent polling from mid-September places ex-governor Mauro Mendes (União Brasil) well ahead in the Mato Grosso Senate race, with 52-55% support in stimulated scenarios allowing two votes per elector, compared to Janaina Riva (MDB) at 32% and trailing names such as Zé Medeiros (PL) near 23%. This positioning aligns with trader consensus favoring Mendes for first place ahead of the October 4 election, where two seats are at stake. Earlier surveys through July showed similar leads for Mendes despite minor fluctuations, reflecting his established name recognition and coalition backing in a state with over 2.6 million eligible voters. Lower-probability candidates face structural barriers from limited polling traction and weaker party structures. No major campaign shifts have altered the hierarchy in the past week.