Recent acceleration in Mexican economic activity, highlighted by July’s IGAE rising 0.8% monthly and 3.3% year-over-year, underpins the tight contest between the 2.5-3.0% (33.0%) and 2.0-2.5% (29.5%) brackets for Q3 2026 GDP growth. The Q2 rebound to 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, alongside upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Banxico (to 1.5%), HR Ratings (to 1.3%), and the OECD (to 1.5%), reflects resilient exports, services, and construction that bolster mid-2% outcomes. Countervailing pressures from flat consumption, August employment declines, and 3.3% CPI sustain uncertainty, keeping the 2.0-3.0% band dominant while leaving room for lower realizations if Q3 momentum fades ahead of the late-October release.