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icon for Mexico Legislative Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

icon for Mexico Legislative Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

Morena 91.1%

PAN 6.4%

PRI 2.2%

MC <1%

Polymarket

$104,465 Vol.

Morena 91.1%

PAN 6.4%

PRI 2.2%

MC <1%

Polymarket

$104,465 Vol.

icon for Morena

Morena

$56,705 Vol.

91%

icon for PAN

PAN

$17,572 Vol.

6%

icon for PRI

PRI

$8,542 Vol.

2%

icon for MC

MC

$9,375 Vol.

<1%

icon for PT

PT

$6,129 Vol.

<1%

icon for PVEM

PVEM

$6,141 Vol.

<1%

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena holds a commanding position in trader assessments for the June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, driven by consistent polling leads of 33-46% amid a fragmented opposition where PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano each register below 18%. The ruling party's organizational strength, alliances with PVEM and PT, and control of the federal executive under President Claudia Sheinbaum underpin this edge, with recent surveys showing limited growth for rivals despite the formal start of the electoral process in September 2026. Internal candidate selection tensions and state-level governance challenges exist within Morena, yet these have not shifted national preference data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major economic downturn, significant policy reversals eroding support, effective opposition coalitions, or late scandals affecting the incumbent bloc before voting day.

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Volume
$104,465
End Date
Apr 1, 2028
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena holds a commanding position in trader assessments for the June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, driven by consistent polling leads of 33-46% amid a fragmented opposition where PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano each register below 18%. The ruling party's organizational strength, alliances with PVEM and PT, and control of the federal executive under President Claudia Sheinbaum underpin this edge, with recent surveys showing limited growth for rivals despite the formal start of the electoral process in September 2026. Internal candidate selection tensions and state-level governance challenges exist within Morena, yet these have not shifted national preference data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major economic downturn, significant policy reversals eroding support, effective opposition coalitions, or late scandals affecting the incumbent bloc before voting day.

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Volume
$104,465
End Date
Apr 1, 2028
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mexico Legislative Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Morena" at 91%, followed by "PAN" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mexico Legislative Election Winner" has generated $104.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mexico Legislative Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mexico Legislative Election Winner" is "Morena" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "PAN" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mexico Legislative Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.