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icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$2,181,712 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$2,181,712 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$662,340 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Miguel Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s First Secretary of the Communist Party and President, actively directing policy through September 2026 amid severe economic pressures from the U.S. blockade, energy shortages, and sanctions.** Official Cuban reporting shows him leading Council of Ministers meetings on 176 approved economic and social transformations, inspecting infrastructure, engaging the public via radio, and coordinating with Raúl Castro on continuity. His second presidential term runs until 2028, with no scheduled leadership transition or party congress indicated in the immediate resolution window. Western reporting notes speculation about longer-term succession involving figures such as deputy prime minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, but current activity centers on implementing reforms to stabilize the socialist model rather than any leadership change. Trader consensus on near-term removal therefore reflects the absence of verifiable triggers like health events, internal party votes, or external diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter the established succession timeline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,181,712
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Miguel Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s First Secretary of the Communist Party and President, actively directing policy through September 2026 amid severe economic pressures from the U.S. blockade, energy shortages, and sanctions.** Official Cuban reporting shows him leading Council of Ministers meetings on 176 approved economic and social transformations, inspecting infrastructure, engaging the public via radio, and coordinating with Raúl Castro on continuity. His second presidential term runs until 2028, with no scheduled leadership transition or party congress indicated in the immediate resolution window. Western reporting notes speculation about longer-term succession involving figures such as deputy prime minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, but current activity centers on implementing reforms to stabilize the socialist model rather than any leadership change. Trader consensus on near-term removal therefore reflects the absence of verifiable triggers like health events, internal party votes, or external diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter the established succession timeline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,181,712
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 17%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" is "December 31" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.