**Arctic sea ice reached its 2026 minimum extent of 4.60 million square kilometers on September 12, according to NSIDC data, placing it squarely in the 4.4–4.6 million sq km range and aligning with the market's near-certain consensus.** This value ties for tenth-lowest in the satellite record alongside 2008, 2010, and 2025, continuing the pattern of the 20 lowest minima occurring since 2007 amid long-term Arctic warming that has thinned and reduced ice cover. Cooler summer conditions limited further melt, yet loose ice persisted near the pole. While a late-season storm could theoretically compact remaining low-concentration areas and nudge final figures slightly lower, official five-day averaged measurements and post-minimum recovery make meaningful shifts outside the leading bin highly improbable.