Zack Wheeler's recovery from thoracic outlet decompression surgery, which sidelined him for the end of the 2025 season and the start of 2026, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus at 92% implied probability for NL Comeback Player of the Year. The Phillies right-hander returned to deliver a 3.00 ERA across 162 innings with a 14-5 record, strong strikeout totals, and key contributions to Philadelphia's late playoff push, including a clinching start. This performance exceeds typical expectations for a post-surgical return at age 36 and outpaces other candidates. Scenarios that could shift the outcome include a late surge by a player like Sandy Alcantara with comparable volume or an unexpected voter emphasis on positional value over pitching dominance, though recent form and injury context heavily favor Wheeler.