Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran’s Supreme Leader since March 2026 without any authenticated public appearance, video, or live address, issuing statements only through written messages or intermediaries. Iranian officials cite security risks tied to the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and reportedly injured Mojtaba, along with broader wartime threats. Recent accounts include President Masoud Pezeshkian’s late-September claims of multiple in-person meetings, including one exceeding seven hours, and a purported August handwritten letter released in late September. These factors sustain uncertainty over health, visibility, and decision-making authority, directly shaping trader assessments of near-term appearance probabilities amid ongoing regional tensions and institutional continuity.