Mississippi's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its Gulf Coast voter base and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Ezell secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote, while Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III advanced unopposed in substance on the other side. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Republican nominee reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments since the primaries. A late scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in comparable past races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-04 House Election Winner
MS-04 House Election Winner
$36,869 Vol.
$36,869 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
4%
$36,869 Vol.
$36,869 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$21,889 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mississippi's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its Gulf Coast voter base and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Ezell secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote, while Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III advanced unopposed in substance on the other side. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Republican nominee reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments since the primaries. A late scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in comparable past races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$36,869End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mississippi's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its Gulf Coast voter base and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Ezell secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote, while Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III advanced unopposed in substance on the other side. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Republican nominee reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments since the primaries. A late scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in comparable past races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,869End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mississippi's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its Gulf Coast voter base and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Mike Ezell secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote, while Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III advanced unopposed in substance on the other side. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Republican nominee reflects the absence of competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments since the primaries. A late scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in comparable past races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions