Hsu Shu-hua, the Kuomintang incumbent Nantou County magistrate, holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the November 28, 2026, election due to her established record since winning the post in 2022, prior service as a legislator and Nantou City mayor, and consistent local organizational backing. Recent developments include Kuomintang leadership events in the county endorsing aligned candidates and her public emphasis on self-reliant local governance ahead of the vote. Wen Shih-cheng, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee and sole major challenger, trails sharply, reflecting limited shifts in the county's partisan balance or polling trends. Late developments such as turnout surprises or unexpected endorsements could narrow the margin, though structural advantages for the incumbent remain pronounced.