Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 93% implied probability for a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed novel coronavirus—distinct from SARS-CoV-2—emerging with sustained human-to-human transmission, per ongoing WHO and CDC surveillance. COVID-19 variants like BA.3.2 and Nimbus continue circulating at low endemic levels, with CDC data as of May 5 showing infections declining or likely declining in 26 U.S. states and stable globally via reduced case reports and testing volumes. Population immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 exposures provides cross-protection against related coronaviruses, lowering spillover risks as evidenced by recent epidemiological analyses. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen zoonotic event, such as rapid adaptation of animal coronaviruses like HKU5-CoV-2, prompting WHO pandemic declaration; watch for weekly WHO dashboards and genomic surveillance updates.