**Trader consensus at 96.4% for “No” reflects the transition of SARS-CoV-2 to endemic circulation by 2025–2026, with widespread population immunity from prior infection and vaccination limiting new pandemic potential.** Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows continued circulation of JN.1-descendant variants (XFG, NB.1.8.1) and BA.3.2 at moderate global risk levels, without exponential growth, new public health emergency declarations, or novel coronavirus emergence meeting pandemic criteria. Recent data indicate lower test positivity and impact compared with prior years, supported by studies showing cross-immunity reducing sarbecovirus spillover likelihood. With only months remaining in 2026, a new pandemic would require rapid zoonotic spillover and sustained transmission—an event not observed in current monitoring. Realistic tail risks include an unanticipated highly immune-evasive variant or novel coronavirus gaining efficient human-to-human spread, though ongoing genomic surveillance and preparedness measures make this unlikely before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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