Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal opposition with a clear edge in trader pricing ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election, reflecting consistent Coalition two-party preferred leads of 54-46 or better across recent polls. Ben Carroll assumed the premiership in late July after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid declining Labor support, yet surveys show only marginal improvement in Labor’s primary vote and Wilson retaining a preferred premier advantage. One Nation’s elevated primary support near 23-25 percent introduces uncertainty over preference flows that could affect seat outcomes, while Wilson’s policy focus on justice reforms, housing, and cost-of-living measures has sustained opposition momentum. Lower probabilities for other figures align with these structural trends and historical patterns of incumbent government vulnerability after extended terms.