Andris Kulbergs holds a commanding 92% market share as the likely next prime minister because he currently leads a four-party coalition government confirmed by the Saeima in late May 2026 with 66 votes, following Evika Siliņa's resignation over coalition disputes involving defense policy and stray drone incidents. His United List alliance has surged in recent polling ahead of the October 3 parliamentary election, positioning it to secure the largest bloc and retain the premiership in post-election coalition talks. Traders reflect this continuity in the consensus pricing. Potential shifts could arise if his party underperforms expectations, coalition partners withdraw support, or late developments alter the security-focused agenda that has bolstered his standing.