Yulia Navalnaya holds the narrow lead among 2026 Nobel Peace Prize contenders on Polymarket due to her prominent human rights advocacy and continuation of Alexei Navalny’s legacy through roles like Human Rights Foundation chair, alongside confirmed public appearances and nominations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows closely, buoyed by ongoing nominations recognizing Ukraine’s defense of European democracies against Russian aggression. The field remains highly fragmented, with organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice reflecting trader focus on institutional peace efforts amid 287 total nominees. No single candidate exceeds single-digit implied probability, underscoring the absence of decisive precursors or late momentum shifts two months before the October announcement, where secret committee deliberations and historical emphasis on underrecognized global conflicts continue to shape the uncertain outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYulia Navalnaya 9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.0%
UNRWA 4.2%
Pope Leo XIV 3.0%
$23,291,812 Vol.
$23,291,812 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
6%
UNRWA
4%
Pope Leo XIV
3%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
2%
International Court of Justice
2%
Donald Trump
2%
Julian Assange
1%
Narendra Modi
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Greta Thunberg
1%
António Guterres
1%
Xi Jinping
1%
Charlie Kirk
1%
Khaled Mashal
<1%
Mohammed bin Salman
<1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
<1%
Elon Musk
<1%
Vladimir Putin
<1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
<1%
Yulia Navalnaya 9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.0%
UNRWA 4.2%
Pope Leo XIV 3.0%
$23,291,812 Vol.
$23,291,812 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
6%
UNRWA
4%
Pope Leo XIV
3%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
2%
International Court of Justice
2%
Donald Trump
2%
Julian Assange
1%
Narendra Modi
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Greta Thunberg
1%
António Guterres
1%
Xi Jinping
1%
Charlie Kirk
1%
Khaled Mashal
<1%
Mohammed bin Salman
<1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
<1%
Elon Musk
<1%
Vladimir Putin
<1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
<1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market Opened: Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yulia Navalnaya holds the narrow lead among 2026 Nobel Peace Prize contenders on Polymarket due to her prominent human rights advocacy and continuation of Alexei Navalny’s legacy through roles like Human Rights Foundation chair, alongside confirmed public appearances and nominations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows closely, buoyed by ongoing nominations recognizing Ukraine’s defense of European democracies against Russian aggression. The field remains highly fragmented, with organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice reflecting trader focus on institutional peace efforts amid 287 total nominees. No single candidate exceeds single-digit implied probability, underscoring the absence of decisive precursors or late momentum shifts two months before the October announcement, where secret committee deliberations and historical emphasis on underrecognized global conflicts continue to shape the uncertain outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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